11 months

Welcome to Owning The Downside

Grow through Recession with Counter Cyclical Investing

On a personal and organizational level there are huge opportunities for long term Counter Cyclical Investing and growing through the constraints and challenges of a recession.

There are significant constraints and challenges ahead for many; individuals and organizations coming into 2024. But there are opportunities. Lets talk about how we can Own The Downside and roll with the punches, do an aikido move on the current dynamics and come through this together stronger, leaner, fitter and happier. 💪

There are many metaphors we can go to frame up this discussion, but I am going to use a SERP YouTube video on Aikido, which is a Japanese martial art, based on the concept of using an attackers own energy to defeat the attack.

Backstory

Personally, I am old enough to have experienced at least 3 major Recessions.

During the Dot Com Bubble, I was working as an IT contractor and web developer in London the United Kingdom, it was a fun time, contracts where flying out the door, money was good, the internet and the World Wide Web was new, and it was very easy to get work.

When I came back to Sydney Australia, the market had started to soften, the Dot Com bubble had burst, and I found a role that was OK, but I was young and ambitious and I wanted more. So, I searched, and with the help of a IT recruiter, I found a full time role at one of Australia's largest companies as a web technology specialist.

Downside

Then, 911 happened, as they say, everything changed, and I was in the HQ of this global news corporation which was very responsive to the war on terror. This global crisis, became a huge opportunity for the corporation, the news cycle became heavy and hot, and personally I was able to jump into many situations that might have been unavailable during normal times.

A few days after 911, the Nimda virus hit the world. This was a multi-vector virus; emails, servers, scripts etc and again I was able to jump into a role, manage up and found myself at the center of events that perhaps in normal times I would of had no access to.

So, in rapid sequence, we saw, a huge economic bubble bursting, i.e. Dot Com, a world history changing terrorist attack, 911 and then a multi-vector cyberattack.

As an aside, I should also mention, we had Y2K in the mix at that time, but thats another story.

Owning the Downside

As an organization, as a corporation, the multinational corporation, did a few things.

  1. Stopped hiring. No new head count.
  2. Overloaded existing staff, or at least those who wanted more opportunities like me.
  3. Went all in on the historical moment and drove the news cycle, circulation went through the roof in print.
  4. Cost cutting: IT, automation and web technology was framed by the CIO as cost-cutting technology.
  5. Counter cyclical investing: strategic investments in a buyers market.

Lets break down the above.

  1. Hiring Freeze: For service organizations people are one of the biggest costs. So, management froze the the head count. No service worker wants to hear this, me included, but its the reality. Note: I think there where exceptions, but the hurdle for new hires became much harder.

  2. Overloaded existing staff; Australia has strong labor laws, so its probably not what many USA service workers might be thinking, but as a natural extension of 1. Hiring Freeze existing staff, especially ambitious workers like myself, wanted new career advancing tasks, that normally might have been excluded from my lane.

  3. Organization all in on the historical moment; the news organization went all in and became the biggest driver of the historical trends of the time. The entire organization was shaken up. Staff moved around, fresh talent moved in, old talent moved out, lots of changes.

  4. Cost cutting technology ; IT, automation and web technology CAN be framed as a way to cut costs, to streamline and automate existing business workflows. ROI or Return on Investment is real if done correctly.

  5. Counter cyclical investing; famously, the family owners of this corporation, where self-made and extremely frugal, and like many entrepreneurs did counter cyclical investing.

Counter Cyclical Investing

During an economic recession, debt is expensive, cash is super valuable, but it becomes a buyers market, and favors organizations prepared to buy or spend or invest in big, I mean BIG items.

My own experience at that time, I saw this news organization, invest big, for the first time in a national newspapers masthead website. A dedicated team of journalists was built, a senior editor was assigned and executive, advertising and marketing where given the mandate to invest company resources, mostly peoples time to make the masthead website successful.

Growth from Owning the Downside

I was part of that team, and long story short, we made the website successful from a clicks and views perspective, but also monetized it, mostly through cross media creative campaigns to sell products like wine or tours, email newsletters and email marketing campaigns to drive subscriptions, and also ecommerce content archives. Advertising was part of the mix also, but at that time (and I know its changed now) print advertising was still big.

So, for me personally, the fact that the organization I was a part of, used the historical and economic momentum of the day as an opportunity, embraced the constraints of the day, took calculated risks and did counter cyclical investing, paid off for the company and for me personally.

Today

So, my advice to organizations and individuals today is to find opportunities for counter cyclical investing, finding ROI from technology and investing in your people and asking them to work smarter (and sometimes harder).

For individuals inside an organization Owning the Downside, be careful of burn-out, too many exciting challenges can become addictive and next thing you know its 18 months later and you are cooked.

If you have been laid off, by an organization that is not Owning the Downside, I am with you, and I'll come back with more in coming posts.

I could point out, that the example above, there where no layoffs, instead the organization GREW in market share during the Recession, they may have lost some folks through increased attrition, but the workplace was always very much a safe and productive environment, the owners where thinking multi-generational and long term and they didn't burn out their staff, or shed them when things got tough.

Instead the owners, Owned the Downside, did an Aikido move on the attackers, grew and expanded during that period.

Let me know your thoughts!

Nicholas Roberts

I recently resigned from a CSM role in the finance SaaS space and am looking for new challenges.

Open to New Challenges 2024!

2024 is going to be a very challenging year. Big focus on web security, performance and ROI.

With global and national security a primary concern my experiences with web performance & security, ecommerce, customer success, project management, product delivery and ROI make me an ideal candidate for the challenges ahead.

I am looking for customer-facing Technical Product / Project Manager roles with a heavy focus on cross-functional teams and especially revenue and ROI.

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